Israel and Iran trade direct strikes for the first time since the April ceasefire. The sequence, in order, attributed — confirmed events separated from what isn't yet known. No narrative, no verdict.
This is YegerPod. I'm Yeger. It's Monday, June eighth — Day one hundred and one of the US-Iran war. Today's episode: Day One Hundred and One.
Since yesterday, Israel and Iran traded direct strikes for the first time since the April ceasefire. Here's the sequence.
Sunday morning, Hezbollah fired rockets at northern Israel. Per the Times of Israel, two were intercepted, with sirens in border communities — the first rocket fire since the renewed Lebanon truce. Israel then struck Beirut's southern suburbs, the Dahiyeh, saying it was in response. The Guardian reports that strike killed at least two people.
Later Sunday, Iran fired missiles at Israel — the first direct Iranian strike during this ceasefire period. The number reported is around ten. Per the IDF, the New York Times, and the Institute for the Study of War, all were intercepted and there were no casualties. Israel's rescue service treated a small number of people; fragments caused minor damage, including to homes in a West Bank settlement. Iran's Revolutionary Guard called the launch a warning over the Beirut strike.
Early Monday, Israel struck back inside Iran. Per the IDF, the Times of Israel, and NPR, the air force hit military and industrial targets in central and western Iran. Iran's Mehr agency reported explosions in Tehran and Isfahan. Israel and Iranian state media — Fars and Mehr — both confirm a strike on the Karun petrochemical complex at Mahshahr, in Khuzestan province. A Khuzestan security official, Valiollah Hayati, said parts of the facility were damaged. A fuller damage assessment isn't in.
The Guardian reports Israel launched that strike after President Trump called Prime Minister Netanyahu urging him not to retaliate. A day earlier, the Los Angeles Times reported Israel hit Beirut despite a US request not to.
After the strikes inside Iran came further launches at Israel — from Iran, and, per the Times of Israel and ABC, from the Houthis in Yemen. Iran closed part of its airspace. Casualty and intercept figures from this latest round aren't confirmed yet.
On the Strait of Hormuz, the Guardian reports Iran's ambassador to Moscow said the strait would open under new conditions set by Iran and Oman, including a transit fee. On the water, the situation is unchanged — Iran controlling passage, the US maintaining its blockade, per the Institute for the Study of War.
Oil moved on the fighting. Per AFP and Reuters, Brent opened the week up more than two dollars, around ninety-seven to ninety-eight, with West Texas Intermediate near ninety-four — after both fell below ninety-four on Friday. Roughly where prices sat during late-May's strikes. Sixty percent of Gulf oil flows east; India, China, Japan, and Korea feel these moves first.
On Polymarket, a permanent US-Iran peace deal by June thirtieth is trading around fourteen and a half percent — flat over the weekend, despite the escalation. The US announcing any new agreement or ceasefire extension by June thirtieth sits near forty percent. A nuclear deal by month's end, near twenty. In an NBC interview aired Sunday, President Trump said a deal is close and urged Tehran back to the table.
So, Day one hundred and one: after weeks of indirect fighting, Beirut, then missiles on Israel, then Israeli strikes inside Iran, then more launches. Oil up, peace-deal odds flat, the US reportedly urging restraint twice in two days. Damage inside Iran and casualties from the latest barrages are still unconfirmed.