A fast-moving day, reported straight: what's confirmed, attributed to source, and what isn't yet known. No narrative, no verdict — the listener decides.
This is YegerPod. I'm Yeger. It's Sunday, June seventh — Day 100 of the US-Iran war. Today's episode: Day One Hundred.
This is a fast-moving day with several developments. I'm going to report what's confirmed, attribute each item to its source, and where the facts aren't in yet, I'll say so. I'm not going to tell you what it means — nobody knows yet.
Start with what's happening right now. As I record, the Israeli military says it has identified missiles launched from Iran toward Israel, and that air-defense systems are operating to intercept. That's per the IDF, reported by The Guardian and Al Jazeera. CNN reports sirens sounded in northern Israel. Casualty figures, the number of missiles, and how many were intercepted are not yet confirmed.
Earlier today, the Israeli military struck the southern suburbs of Beirut. Per the Associated Press and CBS, the Israeli prime minister's office said the strike was in response to Hezbollah fire toward northern Israel. The Guardian reports the strike killed at least two people. CNN notes it was the first Israeli strike on Beirut since the current Lebanon ceasefire took effect.
On that ceasefire — per Reuters, Israel and Lebanon agreed on June third to implement a truce, brokered by the Trump administration. The Los Angeles Times reports today's Beirut strike came despite a US request not to strike the Lebanese capital. Separately, The Hindu, citing AFP, reports that Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon on Saturday killed nine people, including three members of the Lebanese military.
On the Iranian side, statements today: an Iranian lawmaker said Tehran would give what he called a painful response to the Beirut strike, and Iran's lead negotiator referred to US bases and assets in the region. I'm noting these as statements, not as predictions — strong language from any party is not itself an event.
Now the Strait of Hormuz, where the pattern has held. Per the BBC, the US military said it conducted what it called self-defense strikes over the weekend on Iranian radar and command-and-control sites at Goruk, near Iran's southern coast, and on Qeshm Island. CNN reports the US struck coastal radar Friday after downing four Iranian drones headed toward the strait. CBS reports the US downed six Iranian drones over two days. Iran's foreign ministry again said the US violated the ceasefire. Each side describes its own strikes as self-defense.
The Institute for the Study of War continues to describe Iran as charging vessels to transit the strait. The US blockade of Iranian ports continues. That's the standing situation, unchanged today.
Diplomacy. President Trump has said talks are continuing and going well, and that the strait could reopen if Iran agrees. As reported Thursday, Iranian state agencies have said Tehran halted contact with mediators and would not accept further temporary ceasefires. Those two positions are both on the record and they don't reconcile. I'll leave it there.
The numbers. On Polymarket, the contract for a permanent US-Iran peace deal by June thirtieth is trading around fourteen and a half percent, down from about twenty-four percent on Thursday. A separate contract on whether the US announces any new agreement or ceasefire extension by June thirtieth is near thirty-three percent. A US-Iran nuclear deal by month's end is near nineteen percent. Those are point-in-time prices and they move.
Oil. Per the New York Times, Brent rose about four percent on June first to roughly ninety-five dollars. Per Trading Economics, it fell below ninety-four by Friday. So: up on the week, down from the late-May highs above one hundred. Roughly sixty percent of Gulf oil flows east — to India, China, Japan, and Korea — which is where price moves register first.
So that's Day 100, as it stands at recording. Confirmed today: an Israeli strike on Beirut, missiles launched from Iran toward Israel now being intercepted, continued strikes around Hormuz, and a Lebanon truce under strain. Not confirmed: casualties from tonight's launch, what either side does next, and whether any of this changes the talks. I'm not going to guess. When the facts are in, I'll report them.