The Price of Tomorrow

This is YegerPod. I'm Yeger. It's Monday, March 30th — Day 31 of the US-Iran war. Today's episode: The Price of Tomorrow.

At noon Tehran time today, a deadline expired.

The IRGC had issued an ultimatum: every country hosting US military bases had until noon to publicly condemn the bombing of Iranian universities — or face retaliation. No country issued a statement. The deadline passed in silence.

We don't know yet what comes next. We're watching.

Last night, the lights went out in Tehran.

US and Israeli strikes hit power infrastructure across the Iranian capital. Blackout. Hours later the government said it was restored — but the strikes didn't stop there. Karaj, Qom, Shiraz, Abadan, Tabriz. A petrochemical plant in Tabriz caught fire. They say it's contained. In the past twenty-four hours, more than two thousand people have now been killed in Iran since February 28th. The Israeli military said on Monday it is "currently attacking the infrastructure of the Iranian government throughout Tehran." Not military targets. Infrastructure.

Iran's proxies answered back. Saudi Arabia intercepted five ballistic missiles aimed at its Eastern Province — where most of the country's oil infrastructure sits. Kuwait took a direct hit on a power plant and a desalination facility. An Indian worker was killed. Bahrain's sirens went off three times in four hours. The Houthis fired ballistic and cruise missiles at southern Israel — intercepted — and a drone over Eilat, also downed.

This is day thirty-one. The war now spans six countries and it is not slowing down.

This morning, Donald Trump posted on Truth Social.

He said the US is in, quote, "serious discussions with a new and more reasonable regime" to end the war. He threatened to obliterate Kharg Island, all of Iran's oil wells, its power plants, and — in parentheses — "possibly all desalination plants" — if a deal is not reached "shortly." He told the Financial Times he wants to, quote, "take the oil in Iran" and said the US could capture Kharg Island outright.

Iran's parliament speaker responded: the US is secretly planning a ground invasion while waving a peace flag in public. Iran says there are no active talks. Tehran has rejected the fifteen-point US proposal and offered its own conditions: Israel must stop attacking Iranian allies in the region, the US must pay reparations for war damage, and American bases must be removed from the Middle East. Israel says it has no intention of scaling back attacks before any talks. Scott Bessent told Fox News: "Over time, the US is going to retake control of the straits and there will be freedom of navigation, whether it is through US escorts or a multinational escort." Iran has allowed a trickle of non-hostile vessels through the strait — mostly Iranian, Thai, and Chinese ships — but for everyone else, it's effectively closed.

Trump called for France and the UK to send warships to help unblock the strait. Both gave a cool response. Meanwhile the US has quietly eased oil sanctions on Russia and Iran in an attempt to contain energy prices. Economists are still warning the damage could be severe enough to trigger a global recession.

Two people were executed in Iran this week for alleged ties to the MEK — the US-backed Iranian opposition group.

Pakistan says it's preparing to host "meaningful talks" in the coming days.

Now let's talk about what the money is actually saying — because someone is always making money.

This morning, Brent crude hit a hundred and sixteen dollars a barrel — up 3.2% in early Asian trading. WTI crossed a hundred dollars. Oil is on track for its largest monthly gain on record. The spike came minutes after Trump's "take the oil" interview dropped. The same pattern we've seen before: a Trump statement, a price move, and someone positioned correctly on the other side.

Polymarket's ceasefire market now has sixty-three million dollars in total volume — up from fifty-nine million last week. The crowd's current verdict: seventy-three percent chance the war ends by December, sixty-one percent by June. The odds of it ending before oil hits a hundred and twenty dollars? Twenty-nine percent. The market is pricing in a long war and expensive oil, and those positions have been building for weeks.

The ghost wallets we've been tracking — the coordinated cluster that earned over two million dollars predicting strikes and timing ceasefire windows — are positioned exactly there. Heavy on December. Nothing meaningful on April or June. These aren't people hedging their bets. They're people who are confident. Last week that cluster already called one ceasefire swing correctly, putting money in before an announcement and pulling it out on the bounce.

Don Jr. sits on the advisory boards of both Polymarket and Kalshi. The CFTC's Chicago enforcement office — the team that would investigate exactly this kind of pattern — no longer has any attorneys. There is no cop in this building.

Now to a story that keeps getting buried under the bombs.

Two weeks ago, Shoshana Strook — thirty-four years old, daughter of Israel's far-right National Missions Minister Orit Strook — was found dead in her home in northern Israel. She had accused her parents and brother of ritualistic sexual abuse beginning at age two and a half. She said her father exploited her in Tel Aviv from age thirteen. She had just hired lawyers.

Last December, she posted on Facebook: "The abusers are MKs, rabbis, people with power... people who can make any of us disappear. If they tell you I committed suicide — don't believe it. I am present. I exist. And I intend to stay."

A friend told journalist Sefi Rachlevsky she was "not suicidal at all" — and feared being murdered. The Knesset page bearing her mother's name was deleted after her death. Lahav 433 is investigating. Israeli domestic media operates under a gag order.

This week, Shoshana's name surfaced in threads tracking the Epstein files — connecting an Israeli minor who appeared in the documents to a broader network. The names in those files are still redacted. Nine hundred and forty-one protected profiles remain sealed. Two thousand eight hundred and forty-seven files are still classified. The DOJ claims it released all 3.5 million pages — researchers say the full archive is closer to six million. The agency recently leaked victims' personal data in a mass release while keeping the powerful anonymous. Survivors are now suing the DOJ and Google over it.

Congressional hearings hit a wall: Kash Patel and Pam Bondi both took the Fifth. Thomas Massie pushed hard enough that Les Wexner was finally unredacted as a co-conspirator. The rest of the list stays sealed.

Two stories. One pattern: the people who know things keep dying or going silent, the institutions that should be investigating are either compromised or hiding behind classification. And the war provides perfect cover for both.

Pakistan talks, maybe this week. The IRGC deadline just passed. The Strait is still closed. Brent is at a hundred and sixteen. The ghost wallets say December.

The diplomats say next week. One of them is lying.