Tel Aviv Under Fire

I'm Yeger, and this is YegerPod. Day twenty-five of the US-Iran war.

Yesterday I told you about Trump's five-day pause — postponing strikes on Iran's power plants, claiming "very productive conversations" with Tehran while Iran denied any dialogue. I also flagged ten ghost wallets on Polymarket that appeared out of nowhere, betting a hundred and sixty thousand dollars on a ceasefire by March thirty-first.

Today, both of those threads got a lot more interesting.

Let's start with the betting. The Guardian published an investigation Monday confirming what we tracked yesterday. Eight newly created accounts, all opened around March twenty-first, bet a combined seventy thousand dollars on a ceasefire before the end of March. If they win, the payout is eight hundred and twenty thousand dollars. But here's the detail that should raise your eyebrows: one of these accounts was created just before the US struck Iran on February twenty-eighth. That same account placed a winning bet on those strikes. It hasn't bet on anything else since.

Ben Yorke, a former CoinTelegraph researcher, told the Guardian the wallets "definitely look like someone with some degree of inside info." The pattern — wallet splitting, no prior transaction history, all created at the same time — is either a large investor hiding their position, or insider trading. And Polymarket's own ceasefire probability jumped from six percent on March twenty-first to twenty-four percent by Monday. More than twenty-one million dollars is now wagered on this outcome.

So either someone is burning money on a long shot, or someone knows something the rest of us don't.

Now, what happened overnight. The missiles didn't stop. Iranian missiles hit Tel Aviv and multiple locations across southern and central Israel on Tuesday. The Israeli military reported four impact sites from one wave alone — at least three residential buildings damaged, cars set on fire. Six people treated for injuries in Tel Aviv. And Colonel Miki David from the IDF described something new: one of the missiles carried a hundred-kilogram warhead. His words — "something we have not yet encountered in the war." That's a heavier payload than previous rounds, which suggests Iran is escalating even as the diplomatic window stays cracked open.

Northern Israel got hit too. Interception debris struck a building in Nesher. Search and rescue teams operated in multiple locations.

Meanwhile, the diplomacy — if you can call it that — is doing that thing where everyone says different things at the same time. Trump says talks are happening. Iran's parliament speaker says that's "fake news." But anonymous Iranian officials told the New York Times that messages are being exchanged through intermediaries, with the immediate goal of avoiding strikes on critical energy infrastructure. So there might be talks about having talks, which is how these things usually start.

Netanyahu's framing is worth noting. After speaking with Trump Monday, he said the president believes there's "an opportunity to leverage the tremendous achievements" of the military campaign into "a deal that will preserve our vital interests." But he also said Israel would continue striking Iran and Hezbollah in the meantime. That's the Israeli formula — keep fighting, keep talking, claim both reinforce each other.

The Pentagon dropped a significant signal too. Defense officials confirmed they're weighing deployment of a combat brigade from the eighty-second Airborne Division to support operations in Iran. That's ground troops. Not advisory, not defensive — combat. The Hill is reporting the war is taking a mounting toll on the US military: rising casualties, dwindling munitions, a sidelined aircraft carrier, downed aircraft. Thirteen American service members dead so far.

The human cost keeps climbing. Iran's death toll is the hardest number to pin down — HRANA puts it at thirty-two thirty, including fourteen-oh-six civilians. Iran's UN ambassador said thirteen forty-eight civilians, but hasn't updated that figure in over a week. In Lebanon, over a thousand killed. In Israel, at least fifteen. The Red Cross president warned about nuclear facilities — both sides have struck near them — calling the potential consequences "irreversible."

Oil is trying to figure out where it belongs. Brent crude touched ninety-nine ninety-four Monday — below a hundred for the first time in two weeks — after Trump's pause announcement. But by Tuesday it was back above a hundred, at a hundred and one twenty-four. The IEA's assessment hasn't changed: this is the worst energy crisis the world has faced, worse than the seventies oil shocks and Ukraine combined. Forty-plus energy assets damaged, eleven million barrels a day offline.

The rest of the world is starting to move. Australia's prime minister condemned Iran's Hormuz actions, confirmed they've sent aircraft and missiles to support the UAE. The EU's von der Leyen said leaders could "envisage" a maritime operation to secure the strait — but only after hostilities end. Qatar ended its remote work mandate; people go back to offices Tuesday. Small signal, but it suggests Gulf states are adjusting to a new normal rather than waiting for this to end.

So here's where we stand on day twenty-five. The prediction markets are pricing in hope — or someone's inside knowledge — at twenty-four percent for a ceasefire by month's end. The fighting is intensifying, not pausing. Iran is using heavier warheads. The US might send ground troops. And the only confirmed diplomatic activity is messages passed through intermediaries about avoiding the worst-case scenario.

Four days left on Trump's clock.